California may have weak to moderate El Nino, forecasters say

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Weather experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from NASA came together at the Aquarium of the Pacific on Thursday for an updated winter weather forecast. After years of drought, California is in great need of a wet winter. But will we get it?

Using satellite technology, mapping ocean conditions for nearly a year, NOAA is predicting a 53 percent chance of a weak to moderate El Nino.

"That's definitely not a sure bet when it comes to rainfall, but don't lose hope because there are other weather systems that can give us a wet winter," said Dr. Bill Patzert, a JPL climatologist.

Patzert says the last big El Nino year was in 1997. It occurs, on average, every seven years, when trade winds over the Pacific Ocean weaken or reverse, creating warmer than normal ocean water.

He says, at one point, 2014 was on track to replicate those conditions, which would have brought heavy rainfall to the West Coast.

Instead, California got handed its third straight year of below normal rainfall, leaving the state under extreme drought conditions.

"We're in this for the long haul. It takes a long time to get into a drought and it takes a long time to crawl out of a drought. There is no quick fix," said Patzert.

Bottom line, the current models aren't very promising. These weather experts stressed the need for above normal rainfall over several back-to-back winters.

It means Californians will need to do their part, perhaps until next year.

"You have to think more about how much water you use, and use less," said Patzert.