Forecasters predict dwindling chances of El Nino

ELYSIAN PARK, Calif. (KABC) -- Forecasters are growing more pessimistic that a rain-rich El Nino system will hit California this winter.

A few months ago, the predictions for an El Nino were at 80 percent. Now, they're at 60 percent. The revision comes as the National Weather Service monitors surface temperatures on the Pacific Ocean, which are not as warm as projected.

"If the sea surface temperatures aren't as warm that means if an El Nino does develop, it's more likely going to be a weak El Nino. With a weak El Nino, you don't get as strong of a correlation of higher precipitation for the winter," National Weather Service forecaster Brooke Bingaman said.

Short-term storms like the one last month in the high desert communities may offer some relief. This weekend, the U.S. Forest Service is alerting some areas that Hurricane Norbert could wallop areas of San Bernardino County, which recently endured mudslides.

But weeks of heavy rain? Not so likely.

In anticipation of more dry weather to come, the Savannah Memorial Park Cemetery in Rosemead is removing all grass on the grounds in favor of drought tolerant plants and shade trees.

Shane Chapman, general manager of the Upper San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District, said cutting back water usage will minimize the amount California will have to import, but efforts could go even farther.

"We are seeing reductions among our customers 10 to 20 percent now," Chapman said. "It will get us through into next year... (but) more is always better in our business."

In San Gabriel Valley, ground water basin is at a record low. The area needs more than 36 inches of rain to return to normal.

"We have to appreciate that, respect that and plan to store water, recycle water, capture storm water," Chapman said.