Gonzaga Bulldogs up, Villanova Wildcats down in Way-Too-Early Top 25 men's college basketball ran...

ByJeff Borzello ESPN logo
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
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We're slowly checking off college basketball's offseason mile markers. There was the NBA draft early-entry deadline on April 24, then the May 1 deadline for players to enter the transfer portal without needing a waiver to play immediately. While there are still a dozen or so impact players in the portal, things are slowing down on that front -- although we should see some commitments once players in the draft pool return to school and focus on their recruitments.

The next big date is June 1, the early-entry withdrawal deadline. Plenty of players have officially made their stay-or-go decisions, but a number of them are bringing it down to the wire. We dive deeper into some of the key situations throughout this piece, but here's a quick look at the biggest names to watch this week that will have the biggest impact on the next Way-Too-Early Top 25 update:


Drew Timme and Julian Strawther, Gonzaga; Trevor Keels, Duke; Dalen Terry, Arizona; Marcus Sasser, Houston; Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar, Kansas; Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate, Michigan; David Roddy, Colorado State; Jules Bernard, UCLA; and Isaiah Wong, Miami.

As for the newest update, we don't have a change at the top, with North Carolina staying solid at No. 1. In fact, the entire top five remained the same. There was plenty of movement outside of that group, however, with Texas, Tennessee, Texas Tech and Illinois moving up thanks to key additions, Gonzaga moving into the top 10 with Drew Timme's pro stock falling, and San Diego State jumping several spots after the return of Nathan Mensah. On the other side, Michigan took a tumble with Houstan boosting his stock and looking more likely to leave, and Villanova dropped after a further look at its potential roster without Justin Moore.

1. North Carolina Tar Heels

Previous: 1
After a tremendous April that saw the Tar Heels bring four of five starters back and land elite high school juniorG.G. Jackson, it was a quieter month of May for Hubert Davis' program. Kerwin Walton did enter the transfer portal, which could hurt UNC's perimeter depth, but he played just five minutes in the NCAA tournament and had DNPs in six of the Tar Heels' final 10 games. It appeared that Carolina was going to pick up a key transfer, but former Baylor forward Matthew Mayer opted for Illinois over the Tar Heels. Do they look elsewhere to find a more experienced forward? Northwestern transfer Pete Nance remains in the portal, but he has yet to withdraw from the NBA draft. The combination of Puff Johnson and Dontrez Styles isn't a bad fallback plan at all, however. The duo won't offer the shooting of Brady Manekbut would provide versatility, athleticism and some defensive solidity.

Projected starting lineup:

2. Houston Cougars

Previous: 2
Through 12 games last season, Marcus Sasser was one of the best guards in America, averaging 17.7 points, 2.2 steals and shooting nearly 44% from 3-point range. He then suffered a foot injury and missed the rest of the season, but the Cougars were expecting him back and fully healthy next season. That still might happen, but Sasser had a great performance at the G League Elite Camp, earning a call-up to the NBA draft combine, and he told reporters that he was 50-50 on whether to return to Houston. That would be a difficult loss to swallow. On top of that, Louisiana Tech transferKenneth Lofton Jr.-- long considered a Houston lean -- opted to remain in the NBA draft. Lofton, one of the most productive big men in the country, would have given the Cougars an anchor in the post.

Projected starting lineup:

3. Kentucky Wildcats

Previous: 3
Kentucky has only 10 scholarship players on its roster for next season, but the Wildcats might have as talented an eight-man rotation as anyone in the country, making their projected starting lineup something that will constantly be in flux throughout the offseason -- and regular season. Returning starters Sahvir Wheeler and Oscar Tshiebwe are locks to be back in the lineup, while five-star guardCason Wallace fits John Calipari's preference for having two ball handlers and playmakers in the backcourt. After that, Calipari has options. He could go with high-scoring Illinois State transferAntonio Reeveson the wing, or elite shooterCJ Fredrick. Up front, he could opt for versatile five-star forward Chris Livingstonor potential breakout candidate Jacob Toppin.

Projected starting lineup:

4. UCLA Bruins

Previous: 4
With Johnny Juzang entering the NBA draft andJaime Jaquez Jr.opting to return, the lone UCLA player to watch at the deadline is Jules Bernard. He steadily improved during his four seasons in Westwood, but isn't projected to be selected and is considering a return to the Bruins for one more year. Bernard's return would give Mick Cronin another versatile wing with size who can make shots from the perimeter. He finished the season playing some of his best basketball, averaging 15.6 points and 4.6 rebounds while shooting 44.9% from 3-point range over his last nine games. Having an aggressive playmaker like five-star guardAmari Baileynext to Tyger Campbell could open up even more space and shooting opportunities for Bernard next season. If Bernard doesn't return, Jaylen Clark-- who averaged 14.2 points and 6.0 rebounds in six starts -- would see a bigger role.

Projected starting lineup:

5. Creighton Bluejays

Previous: 5
Creighton skyrocketed in the last update of the rankings, having added South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman-- filling the one question mark the Bluejays had in their lineup. They lacked an elite scorer, despite returning four players who started at least 13 games last season. With Scheierman in the mix, Greg McDermott has all the pieces to make a Final Four run come March. One thing worth noting from the past few weeks is the NBA stock of Arthur Kaluma. ESPN released its early 2023 mock draft in early May, and while the first round was mostly filled with incoming freshmen and international prospects, the first returning college player listed was Kaluma, at No. 27. The 6-foot-7 forward had 24 points and 12 rebounds against Kansas in the NCAA tournament, and if he takes the leap forward draftniks are expecting, Creighton could have next season's breakout star.

Projected starting lineup:

6. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Previous: 16
Gonzaga rises 10 spots after Drew Timme fell out of the top 60 of ESPN's draft rankings. It might be a technicality, but players not projected to be selected are considered returning until there is definitive word otherwise. Timme might be the most impactful stay-or-go decision at the deadline, and while he reportedly looked good shooting from the perimeter at the draft combine, he could cap off a truly incredible college career with another season in Spokane. Julian Strawther also has to make a decision. If Timme does leave, Mark Few landed a key reinforcement in LSU transfer Efton Reid, a former five-star recruit who was one of the better post scorers in the 2021 high school class. It could be a stressful few days for Few and the Bulldogs, but they're going to be the WCC favorite regardless.

Projected starting lineup:

7. Baylor Bears

Previous: 9
Scott Drew won't have quite the backcourt he had when Baylor won the national championship in 2021, but the Bears' perimeter group should be one of the best in the country next season.Keyonte Georgeis one of the best incoming freshmen in college basketball, a good scorer with size who has made strides defensively. Adam Flagler, a second-team All-Big 12 selection last season, announced last week he was returning to Waco for another season after initially entering the NBA draft, and a fully healthy LJ Cryer should also be back in the fold. Cryer was on his way to a breakout season, but he suffered multiple foot injuries and missed most of the final two months. He averaged 16.0 points over his final six healthy games. And don't forget about Langston Love, a former top-30 recruit who missed all of last season after suffering an ACL injury in an October scrimmage.

Projected starting lineup:

8. Arkansas Razorbacks

Previous: 6
As always, Arkansas remains busy in the transfer market, landing Wichita State transfer Ricky Council IV after seeing Jaxson Robinson enter the portal. It's a clear upgrade, as Council took a major step forward last season with the Shockers, going from 7.1 points and 3.4 rebounds to 12.0 points and 5.4 rebounds. The question is whether he can regain the shooting stroke he showed as a freshman, when he shot 44.4% from 3 as opposed to the 30.6% he shot last season. Council is an elite athlete and a legitimate NBA prospect, and he will push for an immediate starting spot given his two-way ability. Jaylin Williams was going to be the lone Arkansas name to watch at the deadline, but all spring signs pointed to Williams keeping his name in the draft -- and this past weekend, he made it official. That puts some more pressure on Rhode Island transfers Makhel Mitchell and Makhi Mitchell.

Projected starting lineup:

9. Duke Blue Devils

Previous: 7
As it stands, Jon Scheyer's first season at the helm will depend almost entirely on an elite group of freshmen, with the Blue Devils expected to start as many as four newcomers from day one. What could change the equation would be either the return of Trevor Keels, who has until June 1 to withdraw from the NBA draft, or the addition of Northern Iowa transferAJ Green, who is considering Iowa State and Duke as his next destination. Normally, the Blue Devils would be the heavy favorite -- but Green's father is an assistant coach under T.J. Otzelberger in Ames and the Cyclones have been considered his likely landing spot for months. Keels would give Scheyer a go-to scorer, and a return to Durham would likely seal up a first-round draft spot for the powerful guard, while Green is an elite shooter and scorer.


Projected starting lineup:

10. Kansas Jayhawks

Previous: 8
One wing out, one wing in. Bill Self watched Christian Braunstay in the draft as expected, but already landed a replacement in Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar, who should provide much-needed experience and defensive ability to the Jayhawks' lineup. McCullar earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors each of the past two seasons and has established himself as one of the best defenders in the country. He's also a capable distributor from the wing, and averaged double figures in scoring in 2021 and 2022. Jalen Wilson improved his stock over the course of the past few weeks but is still not projected to be selected in ESPN's draft rankings. Along with McCullar, who is still in the draft, Wilson is one to watch over the next couple of days, but a return to Lawrence -- where he will have an increased role next season -- would be beneficial.

Projected starting lineup:

11. Texas Longhorns

Previous: 12
Texas is one of the headliners this month due to the addition of former Iowa State guard Tyrese Hunter, the nation's top available transfer at the time of commitment. Hunter was Big 12 Freshman of the Year last season, averaging 11.0 points and 4.9 assists, and was one of the best defensive guards in the country. His addition should allow Marcus Carr to play more off the ball, while five-star freshmenDillon Mitchell and Arterio Morrisare also expected to make an immediate impact. Those four should combine to form one of the most explosive perimeter groups in the country, but shooting will be a question mark. None is considered a knockdown shooter, and New Mexico State transfer Sir'Jabari Rice is a career 33.4% shooter from 3. Rowan Brumbaugh might be the best shooter in Texas' backcourt, but it could be difficult to find minutes.

Projected starting lineup:

12. Auburn Tigers

Previous: 11
After missing out on five-star forward Julian Phillips, who picked Tennessee over the Tigers, Auburn will have to hope Allen Flanigan returns to his 2020-21 form and is able to shoulder more of the scoring load on the wing. A projected first-round pick in the 2022 NBA draft last summer, Flanigan underwent a procedure to repair his right Achilles in early September and never found a rhythm once returning to the court. He averaged 14.3 points as a sophomore and was ranked No. 19 in ESPN's early NBA draft rankings -- but didn't appear in a game until late December and averaged just 6.3 points in 22 games. His shooting numbers were down across the board. If Flanigan regains his old form, he could once again be a go-to guy for Bruce Pearl.

Projected starting lineup:

13. Tennessee Volunteers

Previous: 19
Rick Barnes continued his recruiting hot streak, beating out Auburn for five-star forwardJulian Phillipsin mid-May. While the Volunteers missed out on Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter last week, Phillips was enough to move them up several spots in the rankings. Phillips is a potential one-and-done player and was the X factor Tennessee needed for next season. The Vols also landed four-star recruitD.J. Jefferson, one of the most explosive players in the class. The good news continued when Santiago Vescovi, a first-team All-SEC selection last season, opted to withdraw from the NBA draft and return to Knoxville for another season. The pursuit of Hunter could indicate Barnes wants another ball handler, but with Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler and freshmanB.J. Edwards, the Vols shouldn't be short of playmaking.

Projected starting lineup:

14. Indiana Hoosiers

Previous: 15
Given that the Hoosiers have finished better than ninth in the Big Ten once since 2016, it feels like a risk saying this, but here goes: With Trayce Jackson-Davis withdrawing from the NBA draft and returning to Bloomington, Indiana will likely enter the season as the Big Ten favorite. Jackson-Davis is a dominant force on the interior and will get preseason All-American recognition in some circles, and he's leading a core of four returning starters from a team that won 21 games in Mike Woodson's first campaign at the helm. The Hoosiers are also adding five-star recruitsMalik Reneau and Jalen Hood-Schifino, as well as ESPN 100 prospectKaleb Banks. Expect a step forward from former top-25 prospect Tamar Bates, too. The glaring issue for Indiana is going to be perimeter shooting; the Hoosiers shot just 31.9% from 3 in Big Ten play last season, ranking next-to-last in the league.

Projected starting lineup:

15. TCU Horned Frogs

Previous: 13
We were all set to drop TCU into the 20s following Damion Baugh's announcement that he planned to pursue his professional options as opposed to returning for another season with the Horned Frogs. It left Jamie Dixon short on perimeter options, and would have been only the second key departure from last season's team. TCU even went out and landed Oklahoma State transfer Rondel Walker last weekend, which lent more credence to the idea that Baugh was moving on. And then Baugh had a change of heart, saying he was going back to TCU for another season. With Baugh back in the fold, Dixon now has all five starters back from last season -- and the addition of Walker and the return to health of Shahada Wells should give the Horned Frogs added options on the perimeter.

Projected starting lineup:

16. Villanova Wildcats

Previous: 10
Villanova's fortunes for next season might rest on the point guard spot, and what the Wildcats do if Justin Moore isn't healthy for the campaign. The rising senior guard tore his right Achilles in the final minute of Villanova's Elite Eight win over Houston, and it's unclear whether he'll be close to 100 percent for the season. Where does new head coach Kyle Neptune turn if Moore isn't ready? One option will be ESPN 100 prospect Mark Armstrong, a vintage Villanova-type guard who is at his best off the dribble and can create for himself and others in the lane. He changes direction quickly and consistently looks to attack defenses and get into the paint. Redshirt freshman Angelo Brizzi is another option, although Neptune could opt to make Caleb Daniels the primary ball handler and add more size to the lineup.

Projected starting lineup:

17. Alabama Crimson Tide

Previous: 18
The addition of St. Bonaventure transfer Dominick Welch opens up some options for Nate Oats next season, given his ability to rebound and make shots from the perimeter. He has averaged at least 6.0 rebounds in each of the past three seasons, while making more than two 3-pointers per game at a 37.4% career clip. Even with Jahvon Quinerly recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the NCAA tournament, Oats still has two terrific backcourt options in Ohio transfer Mark Sears-- a first-team All-MAC selection -- and five-starJaden Bradley, while Welch could provide a weapon on the wing. There's also the return of former Texas Tech transfer Nimari Burnett, who suffered a knee injury and missed all of last season. If the Crimson Tide can get a fully healthy perimeter at some point next season, there won't be too many teams nationally on par with this backcourt group.

Projected starting lineup:

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