Marlins' win over Dodgers is biggest baseball betting upset since 2007

ByDavid Purdum ESPN logo
Thursday, April 26, 2018

The Miami Marlins pulled off one of the biggest baseball upsets of the past decade Wednesday night, when they took down Clayton Kershaw and the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers 8-6.

The Dodgers closed as high as -450 favorites at Las Vegas sportsbooks, making them one of the largest favorites in recent history.

On June 4, 2016, Kershaw and the Dodgers were as high as -485 favorites over the Atlanta Braves. Those are the largest odds for a favorite in the past 13 seasons, according to sports betting database BetLabSports, which goes back to 2005. The Dodgers won that game 4-0, but weren't as successful Wednesday.

Plenty of bettors were willing to lay the heavy price to back Kershaw. The game attracted more bets than any other game at MGM sportsbooks. At William Hill's Nevada sportsbooks, 90 percent of the money wagered was on the Dodgers, including a $1,500 bet that would have netted around a $400 profit. The largest bet on the Marlins was $125, which netted $512.

Odds on the Marlins-Dodgers game varied from book to book, but the consensus closing price on the Dodgers was -400, meaning bettors had to put up $400 for a chance to win $100. The Marlins were listed as +320 underdogs at most books.

According to BetLabSports.com, only five teams have had odds of -400 or greater since 2005. The Dodgers were the first favorite of that size to lose since the Washington Nationals upset the Minnesota Twins and ace Johan Santana 3-1 on June 9, 2007.

Kershaw surrendered three runs on five hits in five innings against the Marlins on Wednesday and fell to 1-4 on the season.

Overall, though, betting on the three-time Cy Young Award winner has been profitable. If you bet $100 on the Dodgers in each of Kershaw's starts since 2008, you're up more than $1,500.

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