Preseason FPI roundtable: Over- and undervalued, long shots and 'odd but correct' rankings

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With the FPI rankings officially out, our writers tackled what the offseason is meant for: debate and speculation.
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[br /]Which teams are over- and underranked by the FPI? Outside the top 25, which teams have the best chance at proving the preseason rankings wrong? And, what did the FPI get absolutely right despite the season being months away?

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We've got you covered on all of these topics as we forecast the 2023 season.

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A quick reminder on how the FPI works from ESPN's Seth Walder: The Football Power Index is our season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.

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Which top-25 team do you think the FPI is most undervaluing?

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Chris Low: Jim Harbaugh has perhaps his most talented team with an experienced quarterback and offensive line, dynamic running backs and an influx of key transfers, especially on defense. So why is Michigan not somewhere in the top four (and comfortably projected to be in the College Football Playoff) after winning the past two Big Ten championships and appearing in the playoff each of the past two seasons? That's not to say landing at No. 6 is a complete slap in the face, but this is a team that has all the pieces in place to win it all in 2023. A case could be made that the Wolverines should be No. 1, or at least No. 2, going into the season. Even though it took a few years, Harbaugh has the program right where everybody thought he would have it when he returned to his alma mater in 2015.

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David Hale: Washington won seven straight to finish the 2022 season at 11-2, and the Huskies return one of the most prolific QBs in the country in Michael Penix Jr. (along with two 1,000-yard receivers). So why are they ranked 21st in the FPI, behind teams like Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Florida? (Don't answer that. We know the answer is S-E-C). Sure, the Pac-12 looks to be particularly deep this year, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Huskies to be 5-0 entering their showdown with Oregon (at home, coming off an open date). Dillon Johnson (Mississippi State) and Daniyel Ngata (Arizona State) arrive via the portal to bolster the ground game, and the defense could actually take a step forward from last season. The FPI has USC and Oregon ranked ahead of the Huskies in the Pac-12, but I'm a buyer on Kalen DeBoer's team.

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Harry Lyles Jr.: My colleagues have pointed out teams that are more undervalued than the team I'm going to point out: the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs. After winning the national title in 2021 -- their first since 1980 -- they lost 15 guys to the NFL draft. Then they went out and won the SEC and another national championship in 2022. They're going to lose key players again, such as DT Jalen Carter, LB Nolan Smith, TE Darnell Washington and others. They're also going to add key players like transfer wideouts Rara Thomas (Mississippi State) and Dominic Lovett (Missouri), who should be strong targets for Carson Beck (who seems, at the very least, to be the guy who gets the first crack at the starting quarterback spot), along with Mackey Award winner Brock Bowers. They had five freshmen and sophomores start on defense in 2022, and given how we saw them replace a historically great defense from 2021, the expectation will be that they bring in more future NFL talent in the upcoming season. We've reached a point with the Bulldogs that, until somebody knocks them off, they should be atop any list going into 2023 as college football's dominant force. 

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Which top-25 team do you think FPI is most overvaluing?

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Adam Rittenberg: I traditionally go with Texas here, but I actually like the Longhorns to win the Big 12 and maybe even sniff the CFP (words I'm sure to regret). LSU seems a little high at No. 4. The Tigers' defensive personnel jumps out, but will they have enough offense and overall consistency to navigate the SEC schedule? I don't get the Ole Miss thing, either. Quinshon Judkins is excellent, but how many elite teams have the Rebels actually beaten recently? Even the 2021 season was light on signature wins. Putting Ole Miss just one spot behind a Utah team that has consecutive Pac-12 titles and returns its quarterback is a head-scratcher.

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Which team outside the top 25 has the best chance to make a NY6 run?

[br /]Scarborough: I thought I missed something when I first read through the FPI. I kept scrolling and scrolling and scrolling and there it was: Tulane at No. 55. Yes, this is the same Green Wave that won 12 games last season and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. And yes, it's the same Green Wave that returns both their starting quarterback (Michael Pratt) and their top offensive lineman (Sincere Haynesworth). It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Willie Fritz fields the top Group of 5 program once again and winds up in another New Year's Six Bowl.