Will current COVID summer surge see downturn in the next few months? Here's what experts say

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Health officials say we're in the largest COVID-19 summer surge we've seen in two years. Will we see a downturn in the next few months?

"After a big wave people have temporary immunity," said infectious disease specialist Dr. Otto Yang at UCLA'S Geffen School of Medicine.

He said the honeymoon period won't last long. Variants change and people are less on guard, but vaccination remains our best weapon.

The FDA approved the updated COVID-19 vaccine on Thursday. The shots are designed to more closely target recent virus strains -- and hopefully whatever variants cause trouble this winter, too.

What does the new COVID-19 vaccine contain?

This fall's COVID-19 vaccine recipe is tailored to a newer branch of omicron descendants. The Pfizer and Moderna shots target a subtype called KP.2 that was common earlier this year.



While additional offshoots, particularly KP.3.1.1, now are spreading, they're closely enough related that the vaccines promise cross-protection.

A Pfizer spokesman said the company submitted data to FDA showing its updated vaccine "generates a substantially improved response" against multiple virus subtypes compared to last fall's vaccine.

"The vaccine companies are trying to keep up and put in the most, the best matched sequences in the vaccines, with what's circulating," Dr. Yang said.

Antibody protection against KP.2 and other variants is short lived.



"Antibodies work very early and keep the virus down to such low levels that you don't get really an established infection, it probably lasts a couple of months," Dr. Yang said.

He added that antibodies wane because of the virus, not the vaccines. One strategy is to get a repeat shot after four months depending on your health and if you'll be in a high exposure situation such as travel.

MORE: COVID reaches 'very high' level in CA, CDC wastewater data show

How soon should you get vaccinated?

People who are at high risk from the virus shouldn't wait but instead schedule vaccinations once shots are available in their area, experts say. That includes older adults, people with weak immune systems or other serious medical problems, nursing home residents and pregnant women.

"If you're somebody who is at very high risk because you have a weakened immune system and because you're older, probably getting the vaccine more frequently like every four to six months makes sense," Dr. Yang explained.



He added: "If you're someone who is young, healthy, I think every six months to a year. You just have to calibrate it."

This can help you avoid a symptomatic infection, but Yang said just getting a COVID shot also boosts your body's T-cell memory and that's what keeps you out of the hospital.

"T-cell immunity lasts probably longer. We don't know exactly how long, and that's the type of immunity that keeps you from getting very sick or dying if you do get COVID," said Yang.

Studies show the more times you get infected, the higher the likelihood for long term complications. Yang reminds us that masking, social distancing and handwashing are still important tools.

"Whatever is possible to do without too much disruption in real life, you should try to do, " he said.



The CDC says anyone who recently had COVID-19 can wait three months after they recover before getting vaccinated, until immunity from that infection begins to wane.

Health authorities say it's fine to get a COVID-19 and flu vaccination at the same time, a convenience so people don't have to make two trips. But while many drugstores already are advertising flu shots, the prime time for that vaccination tends to be late September through October, just before flu typically starts its cold weather climb.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.