Malaysia Airlines plane crash increases Russia-Ukraine tensions

KIEV, Ukraine (KABC) -- With instability already reigning in the Russia-Ukraine border region, Russia and Ukraine blamed each other after a Malaysia Airlines plane carrying 298 people was shot down by a surface-to-air missile in a rebel-held area of Ukraine Thursday.

The current conflict between the bordering nations has been raging since Russia invaded Crimea back in February. Some 12,000 Russian troops currently perch on the Ukraine border, all the while, pro-Russian separatists continue fighting inside Ukraine.

Things may have crescendoed Thursday with the takedown of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. So what now?

Robert English is the director of the USC School of International Relations and an expert on Russia and Ukraine. He hopes that the crash is a turning point for the better, but says it could also ignite something larger.

"The silver lining on this cloud is possibly a real cease-fire and a real compromised settlement," said English. "What that's gonna do is enormously increase the pressure, the international condemnation of Russia, calls for increased sanctions and (Vladimir) Putin is already evidently trying to find a way out of the conflict."

The international condemnation began Thursday with Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko, who made it a point to pin the blame directly on Russia.

"It is not an incident, not a catastrophe, but a terrorist act," Poroshenko said.

And suddenly, in a conflict that once seemed isolated, the eyes of the world are now watching.

Prime Minister Najib Razak said "no stone will be left unturned" in the investigation.

"If it transpires that the plane was indeed shot down we insist that the perpetrators must swiftly be brought to justice," Razak said at a news conference.

Whether Putin and Russia had a hand in Thursday's crash, according to English, blame still falls directly on the Russian president's shoulders.

"Even if the local separatists, who are now increasingly at odds with Putin, are the ones who launched the missile, Putin, the Kremlin provided the weapons systems and provided those missiles, so of course blame would go directly towards the Kremlin if that's indeed who supplied the weapons. He won't be able to distance himself from responsibility," English said.

There is a history between these two countries of shooting down commercial airliners, dating back to the early 80s, with several incidents since.

Unlike the original Cold War when the U.S. played a major role, English says, this time, America cannot have much impact.

"Those guys on the ground in Donetsk, Lugansk, the surrounding area, have slipped out of Putin's control, much less Washington."

And no matter the outcome, English says that because this conflict has erupted on President Obama's watch, his reputation takes a hit.

"I don't think Obama does well out of this. He can limit damage, but his international reputation and his standing as a foreign policy leader in the United States will all have been diminished even if it's not his fault, even if some of the blame for Russia's behavior goes back even to the Bush administration, it just looks really bad and there's no settlement that will look like an American victory," he said.

For now, President Obama is left to gestures.

"I've directed my national security team to stay in close contact with the Ukrainian government," President Obama said at the beginning of a speech about roads and bridges in Wilmington, Delaware Thursday. "The United States will offer any assistance we can to help determine what happened and why."

On the phone with Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko Thursday, President Obama promised aid in the crash investigation. But English stresses, America can't afford to fully take sides.

"We can't have a total victory over Putin and Russia here. We only can cooperate, the west and Russia in trying to stabilize Ukraine or else, what's coming six months or a year from now will be even worse, if you can imagine that, than what we see today," he said.

What that could be, and what many are hoping to avoid is a full-blown civil war.