WNBA BPI: Sparks closing gap on Lynx

While the Minnesota Lynx might have seemed to be a lock for the 2017 WNBA title after starting the season 20-2, the Los Angeles Sparks are coming on strong just in time for the teams' final regular-season meeting on Sunday (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET). As recently as Aug. 5, Minnesota had a 35 percent chance to claim its fourth WNBA championship in seven years. Meanwhile, Los Angeles -- 18-6 at the time -- had a 20 percent chance at its second straight title.

But the Lynx have since faltered, posting a 3-4 record, while the Sparks have gone 4-2 in their last six games. According to the WNBA Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Sparks have a 32 percent chance to win this season's championship, just behind Minnesota's 34 percent chance. Prior to Aug. 5, their title chances had not been separated by less than 2 percentage points since May.

What to watch for

Entering their two prior meetings this season, the predicted defensive contributions from the Lynx and the Sparks were separated by mere decimals, according to BPI.

But keep an eye on the offense in their matchup Sunday. BPI predicts that Minnesota's attack is 5-plus points better per game than that of the average WNBA team; it's Minnesota's highest offensive rating of the season.

The last time the Lynx and Sparks met, Minnesota's expected offensive contribution was less than one point above average, its lowest mark of the season and sixth in the WNBA.

Accounting for both of their current expected offensive and defensive contributions, BPI predicts that the Lynx would beat the Sparks by 0.9 point on a neutral court.

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