College Football Playoff, bowl projections following Week 3

Three weeks into the season, the college football landscape has seen its share of tumultuous results.

Two teams near the top of most preseason playoff projections -- Notre Dame and Clemson -- already have two losses, placing the Irish and Tigers on extremely shaky ground. The SEC looks as deep and strong as ever based on its nonconference record, meaning most of the in-league matchups will be up for grabs and have significant ramifications.

As in last season's inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:br/>Playoff picks| Quarterfinalsbr/>Semis, title game| Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU

>Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Miami

>Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Florida State

>Schlabach: No. 10 Illinois at No. 7 Florida State

Bonagura: No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Illinois

>Schlabach: No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 8 Oklahoma

First-round breakdown

Bonagura:After South Florida began the season with a pair of ranked wins, it came back to earth on Saturday with a 49-12 loss to Miami. Despite that loss, I kept the Bulls in the coveted No. 12 spot, which projects as the likely placement for the top-ranked Group of 5 team. The logic was this: losing to Miami -- a team that has a strong case for a first-round bye -- shouldn't be reason to automatically fall out for a team ranked well below them. How the Bulls played, though, was concerning, and Tulane received strong consideration.

Iowa State, however, did drop from my playoff field after a narrow win against Arkansas State. The Cyclones are 4-0 but haven't turned in a fully comprehensive win all year (at least against an FBS team).

Schlabach:The top two teams in my bracket, Ohio State and LSU, remain unchanged, but there was quite a bit of shuffling after that. Texas, Notre Dame, Iowa State and South Florida fell out of my 12-team bracket, while Texas A&M, Illinois, Utah and Tulane moved in.

Texas still might be one of the best teams by season's end, but something seems off with the Longhorns' offense at this point. Quarterback Arch Manning struggled throwing the ball again; at one point in Saturday's 27-10 victory against UTEP, he was booed by the home crowd for misfiring on 10 straight incompletions. Not good. The Aggies are my ninth seed after knocking off Notre Dame 41-40 on the road. Quarterback Marcel Reed threw the winning touchdown to Nate Boerkircher with 13 seconds left to give Texas A&M its first road win over an AP Top 25 opponent since November 2014.

I'll go with the Green Wave as the fifth conference championship winner, but I still believe USF will be a factor. Despite Saturday's trouncing, the Bulls' earlier upsets of Boise State and Florida are going to carry some weight in the CFP selection committee debates.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

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>Bonagura:No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon

>Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Georgia

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Penn State

>Schlabach: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinal at theRose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential

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>Bonagura:No. 8 Illinois vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia

>Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura:As things sit, Penn State vs. LSU and Georgia vs. Miami are the two hypothetical quarterfinal matchups that stand out. It has been an incredible nonconference run this year for the SEC. The depth in the conference feels stronger than ever -- much stronger than in the Big Ten.

But what does depth matter if it doesn't lead to postseason success? It's possible to envision scenarios in which the SEC gets three teams through the quarterfinals -- or none. That's part of what makes this round so intriguing.

Schlabach:I bumped Penn State down a few spots, not as much for how the Nittany Lions have played this season but for who they've played. Penn State's three victories have come against Nevada, Florida International and FCS program Villanova. My top four teams each have at least one significant victory on their résumés.

An Oregon-Georgia matchup in the Cotton Bowl would be a nice chess match between Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Ducks coach Dan Lanning, who was Smart's former defensive coordinator. The Bulldogs will have to improve on defense over the next couple of months to be a legitimate CFP contender, but going on the road and winning 44-41 in overtime at Tennessee was impressive.

A Penn State-Miami game in the Orange Bowl would also be enticing (break out the camo!). It would feature two of the top quarterbacks available in next year's NFL draft: Miami's Carson Beck and Penn State's Drew Allar.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

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>Bonagura:No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

>Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 LSU

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship

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>Bonagura:No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

>Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura:Ohio State and Oregon still feel like the two best teams. Neither really had to break a sweat over the weekend, and that figures to be the case this week, too. Oregon vs. Oregon State sets up to be one of the most lopsided games in the history of the rivalry, while Ohio State is idle. Things get much more interesting Sept. 27, with Oregon traveling to Penn State and Ohio State visiting Washington.

Schlabach:I have the top four seeds advancing to the semifinals, and we all know the odds of that happening probably aren't high. Miami has probably built the most impressive résumé to date after taking down Notre Dame 27-24 at home in its opener and dismantling USF on Saturday. The Hurricanes play in-state rivals Florida and Florida State the next two games.

I'm still going with Ohio State and LSU meeting in the national title game, although the Tigers' season-opening victory at Clemson might not be as big as it seemed at the time. LSU wasn't nearly as impressive in its past two wins over Louisiana Tech and Florida.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl

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>Bonagura:Alabama State vs. South Carolina State

>Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl

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>Bonagura:Arizona vs. UNLV

>Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

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>Bonagura:Troy vs. Northern Illinois

>Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

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>Bonagura:Cincinnati vs. Texas State

>Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl

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>Bonagura: South Alabama vs. UConn

>Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl

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>Bonagura:Florida International vs. James Madison

>Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

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>Bonagura:Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

>Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

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>Bonagura:Ohio vs. Fresno State

>Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl

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>Bonagura:Old Dominion vs. Temple

>Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl

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>Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Jacksonville State

>Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

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>Bonagura:UCF vs. Liberty

>Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl

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>Bonagura:Boise State vs. Army

>Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl

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>Bonagura:Michigan State vs. Toledo

>Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl

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>Bonagura: Houston vs. Maryland

>Schlabach: BYU vs. Wisconsin

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

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>Bonagura: Buffalo vs. East Carolina

>Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl

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>Bonagura: Virginia vs. Memphis

>Schlabach: Dukevs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

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>Bonagura: NC State vs. Rutgers

>Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

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>Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Tulane

>Schlabach: SMU vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl

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>Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. BYU

>Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

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>Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico

>Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

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>Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Kentucky

>Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

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>Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama

>Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas

Kinder's Texas Bowl

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>Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M

>Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl

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>Bonagura: Arkansas vs. North Texas

>Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

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>Bonagura: Baylor vs. Louisiana

>Schlabach: Houston vs. Jacksonville State

Music City Bowl

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>Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Auburn

>Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl

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>Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. USC

>Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl

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>Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Tennessee

>Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

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>Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State

>Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

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>Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss

>Schlabach: Indiana vs. Alabama

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

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>Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal

>Schlabach: Iowa vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

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>Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy

>Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

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>Bonagura:TCU vs. Missouri

>Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri

Duke's Mayo Bowl

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>Bonagura:Clemson vs. Vanderbilt

>Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina

Holiday Bowl

>Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)

>8 p.m., Fox

>Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington

>Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State

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