What to watch during the final weekend of the MLB season
Travis d'Arnaud hit the biggest home run of the season for the Atlanta Braves. Fans of the New York Mets are in a state of panic. Paul Skenes delivered two more scoreless innings to cap off his stunning rookie season with a 1.96 ERA. Saturday is in the books. We have one full day of the regular season left -- plus the Braves-Mets doubleheader Monday.
Here's what to watch, starting with the National League wild-card race, where the Braves now have a one-game lead over the Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks as the three teams battle for two spots.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers shut out the Mets 6-0 on Saturday, handing the Mets their first three-game losing streak since Aug. 11. When the Braves beat the Royals 2-1 later, it dropped the Mets behind the Braves in the standings for the first time since Sept. 4.
The Mets will start David Peterson on Sunday. The lefty has allowed five runs in two of his past three starts, although he has generally been effective since July, with a 2.90 ERA over his past 15 starts. The Brewers are locked into the third seed and will certainly rest all their top relievers as they get ready for Tuesday's wild-card series. Colin Rea gets the start for Milwaukee, but expect a heavy bullpen game with the secondary relievers getting the action.
The Mets used their top three starters in this series: Sean Manaea on Friday, Jose Quintana on Saturday and now Peterson. That means Luis Severino and Tylor Megill are the likely starters for Monday's doubleheader. The Braves do have a righty-heavy lineup and have an OPS nearly 70 points higher against lefties, so at least the Mets will have their two right-handed starters going Monday.
Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves
The Braves beat the Royals on d'Arnaud's walk-off home run. Reynaldo Lopez returned from the injured list to make his first start for Atlanta since Sept. 10 and allowed just two hits and one run in six innings. The 2024 All-Star finishes the season with a 2.00 ERA in 25 starts (although he didn't pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title).
The Braves' gamble to hold off on starting probable Cy Young winner Chris Sale until absolutely needed has paid off. Sale could have started Friday, but the Braves have said they were going to hold him back until facing potential elimination. With a one-game lead in the wild-card race, the earliest that now could come would be the second game of the doubleheader against the Mets. The best-case scenario, of course, is that they clinch before using Sale and having him ready for Game 1 of the wild-card series.
As of Saturday night, manager Brian Snitker said the team hadn't decided on a Sunday starter. Charlie Morton would be the starter with the most rest, but the Braves might want to save him for the Mets. That could leave Grant Holmes to face a slumping Kansas City offense.
Remember as well: The Braves lead the season series 6-5 over the Mets, meaning the tiebreaker between the two teams is still up for grabs.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Padres blanked the Diamondbacks 5-0 on Saturday -- the second shutout in four games for the high-powered Arizona attack and their fifth loss in six games as a wild-card spot that looked pretty safe a week ago is suddenly in jeopardy. Indeed, the key to remember here is the Diamondbacks lose the tiebreaker to both the Mets and Braves.
Sunday now feels like a must-win for Arizona. If they lose again, one win by the Mets on Sunday or in Monday's doubleheader would eliminate the Diamondbacks.
With Zac Gallen in line to start the wild-card opener after pitching Wednesday, Brandon Pfaadt will start Sunday against Martin Perez. Pfaadt has been all over the place lately, getting knocked out in the third inning of his last start and in the second inning two starts ago, but sandwiched around a 12-strikeout game.
All of the NL wild-card scenarios
So what does it all mean for Sunday (and Monday)? ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passantweeted out all of the scenarios heading into Sunday's games:
Scenario 1: Braves win, Mets win, Diamondbacks win
Outcome: Braves are in and at least one game is necessary Monday. If the Mets win the first game, they are in -- and would be tied with Atlanta in record and head-to-head. The likelihood is they would not play the second game, as it would be for seeding purposes only. If the Mets lose Game 1 and win Game 2, they are in. If not, the Diamondbacks are in.
Scenario 2: Braves win, Mets win, Diamondbacks lose
Outcome: Braves are in and play San Diego on Tuesday. Mets are in and play Milwaukee on Tuesday. Diamondbacks are out. No doubleheader Monday.
Scenario 3: Braves win, Mets lose, Diamondbacks win
Outcome: Braves are in and at least one game is necessary Monday. If the Mets win both doubleheader games, they are in. If the Mets lose either game, Diamondbacks are in.
Scenario 4: Braves win, Mets lose, Diamondbacks lose
Outcome: Braves are in and at least one game is necessary Monday. If the Mets win either game, they are in. If they lose both, the Diamondbacks are in.
Scenario 5: Braves lose, Mets win, Diamondbacks win
Outcome: Both games will be played Monday. The winner of Game 1 is in. If the loser of Game 1 wins Game 2, it is in as well. If a team is swept, it is out and the Diamondbacks are in.
Scenario 6: Braves lose, Mets wins, Diamondbacks lose
Outcome: Braves are in and play San Diego on Tuesday. Mets are in and play Milwaukee on Tuesday. Diamondbacks are out. No doubleheader Monday.
Scenario 7: Braves lose, Mets lose, Diamondbacks win
Outcome: Diamondbacks are in and at least one game is necessary Monday. If the Braves win either game, they are in. If the Mets win both doubleheader games, they are in and would face San Diego.
Scenario 8: Braves lose, Mets lose, Diamondbacks lose
Outcome: Braves are in and at least one game is necessary Monday. If the Mets win either game, they are in. If they lose both, the Diamondbacks are in.
American League wild card
Lots of this was settled Friday night: First, before a boisterous crowd of 44,435 fans at Comerica Park, the Tigers beat the White Sox 4-1 to win their sixth straight game and clinch their first playoff spot since 2014. They had been tied with the Angels for the longest active playoff drought in the majors.
The Royals backed into their first postseason since 2015 when the Twins lost.
The Orioles clinched the fourth seed in beating Minnesota. The Tigers are one game up on the Royals for the fifth seed, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker in case they finish with the same record. The fifth seed will play at Baltimore while the sixth seed will play at Houston in the wild-card series (the higher seed gets all home games). The good news for both the Tigers and Royals is they can save Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans for the first games of the wild-card series, rather than having to start them Sunday.
Battles for the best record and top seed
The Dodgers clinched both the top seed in the NL and the top seed overall (the fourth time in eight seasons the Dodgers finished with MLB's best record). That leaves the Phillies as the No. 2 seed in the NL.
Despite a 9-4 loss to the Pirates as Luis Gil served up four home runs, the Yankees clinched the top seed in the AL when the Guardians lost, making Cleveland the No. 2 seed.
The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in both leagues remain unsettled. The Tigers have a one-game lead over the Royals in the AL, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.
The Shohei Ohtani watch ... continues
The man is not slowing down. You thought we were done with Ohtani milestones after he cleared 50/50? No way. He went 2-for-5 with his 58th stolen base in Saturday's blowout win over Colorado -- his 35th consecutive stolen base without getting caught. Going back to his 6-for-6 game, he's an incredible 26-for-39, a .667 average.
What can he do if he plays Sunday? He's at 99 extra-base hits; the last players to reach 100 did it in 2001. And the Triple Crown is in play. Ohtani raised his average to .310. League leader Luis Arraez didn't play Saturday, so remains at .314. It will be interesting to see if Arraez sits again on his .314 average and forces Ohtani to have a big day to catch him.
If Ohtani goes 4-for-5, he would be hitting .31397. Arraez is currently at .31388.
Other statistical races at play
Can Aaron Judge get to 60 home runs? Judge was back in the lineup Saturday after a day off, but went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. That dropped his slugging percentage to .701 as he tries to become the first player to slug .700 since Barry Bonds in 2004. The last player to do so outside of the 1994 to 2004 window was Ted Williams in 1957.
Ohtani already passed 400 total bases, the first time that was done since 2001. Judge is at 392 so would likely need a two-homer finale to get there.
Bobby Witt Jr. now looks like a lock for the AL batting title. He has held the lead all summer, and when he peaked with a .352 average on Aug. 16, he held a comfortable 19-point lead over Judge (and 33 points over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). After sitting Saturday, Witt remained at .332, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-4 to fall to .324 while Judge dropped to .322 (which also eliminates his chance of a Triple Crown).
Jose Ramirez hit his 39th home run Saturday, so needs one more to join the exclusive 40/40 club, which has just six members: Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. (2023), Alfonso Soriano (2006), Alex Rodriguez (1998), Barry Bonds (1996) and Jose Canseco (1998).
Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals has 49 saves; 50 saves has been achieved 17 times, the last by Edwin Diaz in 2018.
Saying goodbye
Joey Votto, who didn't play in the majors this season after signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement a few weeks ago, and his next stop will eventually be receiving a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown. Two longtime outfielders have also officially announced their retirements at the end of the season:
- Los Angeles Dodgers CF Kevin Kiermaier: It's not clear whether Kiermaier will make the Dodgers' playoff roster as a backup outfielder (he has hit .164 with the Dodgers and has started just two games in September), so this could be it for one of the best defensive center fielders of all time. Yes, all time. Kiermaier has won four Gold Gloves, displaying incredible lateral range during his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 38 defensive runs saved in 2015 is the best single-season total for a center fielder since DRS began in 2003, and his career total of 173 is the most for any outfielder since 2003 (and third most at any position, behind only Andrelton Simmons and Adrian Beltre). Kiermaier's defensive excellence is reflected in his career WAR of 36.1. Not bad for a 31st-round pick from Parkland Community College.
- Colorado Rockies DH/OF Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon has spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. It took him a while to get situated in the big leagues -- his first full season didn't come until he was 27 years old -- but he went on to become a four-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2017 NL MVP voting after leading the league in batting average (.331), hits (213) and runs (137). His power declined after that 2016 to 2019 peak, but he's one of the most popular players in Rockies history and will finish with more than 1,800 hits in the majors.
There might be a few other veterans playing their final games who just haven't yet announced their retirements. Matt Carpenter comes to mind here. Kyle Hendricks wants to pitch in 2025, but he heads into free agency, and his start Saturday at Wrigley Field will likely be his final one after 11 seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Let's hope Andrew McCutchen returns to the Pittsburgh Pirates for another season after he put up solid numbers in 2024. If these guys don't return -- thanks for the memorable careers.
