Polling shows Americans split ahead of 1st 2024 presidential debate: 'It's basically a coin flip'
Ahead of Thursday night's presidential debate, 538 and Ipsos are partnering to poll voters. The same voters will reveal how they feel about the matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump before and after the debate to measure any changes in public opinion.
Early results before the debate show expectations are relatively low for both candidates, but especially for Biden. On average, likely voters gave Biden an expectations score of 2.58 out of 5, while they gave Trump 2.96 out of 5.
Almost exactly the same share of likely voters said they were considering voting for Biden (44.5%) as said they were considering voting for Trump (44.8%). Meanwhile, 18.5% of likely voters said they were considering independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who failed to qualify for the debate.
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"Biden and Trump are neck and neck in the national polls, and our forecast says it's basically a coin flip," Nathaniel Rakich with 538 said. "Historically, debates have moved the polls by about two percentage points. In a tied race, obviously, a lead of two points for one candidate could be significant. So, in that sense, the debate is a big deal. With that said, I think a lot of people are going to try to overhype the debate. Say that it could be a game changer. Even a two-point race really isn't that uncompetitive."
Both Biden and Trump are unpopular: Biden's net favorability rating is -21.4 percentage points, while Trump's is a little better at -17.1 points. Twenty-one percent of voters are "double haters" who dislike both candidates.
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