LSU vs. USC betting: High point totals for Tigers and Trojans?

Week 1 of the 2024 college football season features a Sunday night prime-time matchup between the No. 23 USC Trojans and No. 13 LSU Tigers at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Both teams are replacing Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks as Garrett Nussmeier steps in for LSU to replace 2023 winner Jayden Daniels and Miller Moss fills the shoes of 2022 winner Caleb Williams with the Trojans. USC is beginning its first season in the Big Ten Conference, while LSU opens action in a 16-team SEC.

These two famed programs have only met twice in their history, and not since 1984. They will kick off for a neutral-site game at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

The lines

Spread:LSU (-4)

Money line: LSU (-185), USC (+155)

Over/Under: 64.5

First-half spread:LSU -2.5 (-120), USC +2.5 (Even)

LSU total points:Over 34.5 (-115), Under 34.5 (-115)

USC total points:Over 29.5 (-120), Under 29.5 (-110)

Pick of the game:USC +4 vs LSU

Two programs with new quarterbacks, so which can we, as bettors, trust more? I'll go with the Trojans and Miller Moss. Moss has plenty of college experience, having been a backup for several years and making a start in the Holiday Bowl, where he threw six touchdowns on 372 passing yards. Moss fits well into USC's high-octane offense. More than that, I trust USC head coach Lincoln Riley. As one of the most innovative offensive minds in college football, Riley has designed a system to maximize quarterback performance through a spread offense that encourages aggressive downfield passing and quick reads.

Similar things could be said about LSU and head coach Brian Kelly. However, the problem for me is that LSU no longer has offensive catalyst Jayden Daniels. Daniels wasn't just a dynamic dual-threat quarterback; he was the guy. Beyond exceptional, he set an LSU record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a season (1,134) while producing game-changing performances, including a historic game against Florida where he threw for 606 total yards and set an SEC record. Daniels had qualities that are difficult to replace.

While Garrett Nussmeier has shown promise, this transition period could present more challenges for LSU's offense as they adjust to a new leader. Plus, the game is being played at a neutral site in Las Vegas, which mitigates the home-field advantage typically enjoyed by SEC teams such as LSU. Take the four points with USC.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

• These were two of the top three teams at hitting the over last season, and the two highest among power-conference teams
• USC: 1-10 ATS in neutral-site games since 2014, worst in FBS over span
• LSU: 1-5 ATS in neutral-site games since 2020, third worst in FBS over span

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