NFL Week 9 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 9 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts -- Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let's get into the full Week 9 slate, including an NFC North showdown between the Lions and Packers and the quarterback Joe Flacco-led Colts taking on the Vikings. It all culminates with a "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Buccaneers and the Chiefs on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

DAL-ATL | MIA-BUF | LV-CIN

LAC-CLE | NE-TEN | WSH-NYG

NO-CAR | DEN-BAL | JAX-PHI

CHI-ARI | DET-GB | LAR-SEA

IND-MIN | TB-KC

Thursday: NYJ 21, HOU 13

Bye: PIT, SF

Cowboys (3-4) at Falcons (5-3)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ATL -3 (51.5 O/U)

Cowboys storyline to watch:The Cowboys are at a crossroads. Will they be contending for the playoffs or draft positioning in the second half of the season? Only once since 1989 have the Cowboys made the playoffs after starting 3-5 -- in 2018 when their midseason trade for wide receiver Amari Coopersparked a 10-6 finish. But a 4-4 record after eight games is no guarantee either. In that same time span, they've made the playoffs twice out of the five times they were .500 after eight games. -- Todd Archer

Falcons storyline to watch: The offensively versatile Falcons might become a run-first team again this weekend. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most touchdowns on the ground (12) and the fourth-highest yards per carry (tied, 4.8) in the league. To go deeper, Bijan Robinson has a league-best 57.6% success rate on under-center runs among running backs with at least 30 carries, while the Cowboys have given up the second-highest success rate (49.3%) on such runs, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: A defeat for the Cowboys would match their loss total from each of the previous three seasons (12-5 from 2021 to 2023).

Bold prediction: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts will record under 25 receiving yards. I'm not expecting a breakout from him, not with a 33 open score anyway. That's the worst among all qualifying tight ends and wide receivers. -- Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Falcons

Fantasy X factor:Robinson. He has had 18 or more touches and 20 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. Now, Robinson faces a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in run stop win rate (26.7%) and gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their past five games following a loss (0-3 ATS after a loss this season). Read more.

Kahler's pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 20

Moody's pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys, 27

Walder's pick: Cowboys 27, Falcons 23

FPI prediction: ATL, 56.7% (by an average of 2.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Another missed chance by Cowboys, Prescott versus 49ers ... Falcons' Pitts having career revival with help of Kirk Cousins

Dolphins (2-5) at Bills (6-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -6 (48.5 O/U)

Dolphins storyline to watch: Dolphins rookie running back Jaylen Wright leads the team in yards per carry (5.3). He averages only six touches per game to De'Von Achane's and Raheem Mostert's 11.6 and 11.3, respectively. Achane has been Miami's best offensive player this season, and coach Mike McDaniel said Mostert has been a "gigantic tone-setter" for the team. Still, when asked about getting the rookie more involved, McDaniel said Miami will make the "necessary adjustments to make sure that he can contribute his skill set." -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bills storyline to watch: Rookie receiver Keon Coleman has nine receptions for 195 yards in the past two games. He had 201 receiving yards in the first six games. "The trust that I have in him just grows day by day, and we get extra reps after practice, and you see that starting to pay dividends," quarterback Josh Allen said. The Bills' offense has had success at home this season, averaging 38.3 points in three games. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Dolphins have scored 28 total points in three road games this season. They have scored under 40 total points in their first four road games only once in franchise history (30 in 1967).

Bold prediction: Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid will record six or more receptions. Against the Dolphins, 23% of targets have gone to tight ends this season, which is tied for the highest rate in the NFL. -- Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiverKhalil Shakir. Buffalo's passing game is trending up, with Allen throwing for 280 or more yards in consecutive games. Shakir has had seven or more targets and 13 or more fantasy points in those games. The Dolphins rank in the top eight in the league in their use of zone coverage, and Allen ranks near the top of the league in QBR against zone coverage. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget:Dolphins quarterbackTua Tagovailoa is 4-0-1 ATS in his career as at least a six-point underdog. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Bills 30, Dolphins 21

Moody's pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 24

Walder's pick: Bills 30, Dolphins 23

FPI prediction: BUF, 72.0% (by an average of 9.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Tua stayed connected with Dolphins while on IR ... Allen takesBills QB room to World Series Game 4 ... Tua praised for protecting self in Miami loss

Raiders (2-6) at Bengals (3-5)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: CIN -7 (46.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders have already used four different starting offensive line combinations in eight games and might have to deploy a fifth against the Bengals. Center Andre James is dealing with a right ankle injury that knocked him out of last week's loss to the Chiefs. Rookie left guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, who won the 2023 Rimington Trophy as the best college center, slid over to close out the game, without much of a drop-off."I've got great guys around me," Powers-Johnson said. "The whole line is pushing for me and wanting me to be great. ... Definitely a learning curve, so I've got to get on the bike again and start riding the tricycle again."-- Paul Gutierrez

Bengals storyline to watch: One matchup could dictate how things go for the Bengals' offense: left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who is battling a lower right leg injury ahead of Sunday's game, vs.Maxx Crosby, who is ninth in the league in pass rush win rate as an edge rusher (22.3%). Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow knows the plan for success is simple: "The biggest thing is eliminate [Crosby's] ability to affect the game." -- Ben Baby

Stat to know:Burrow has passed for fewer than 250 yards in three consecutive games, tied for the longest streak of his career. He has a total of 347 passing yards in two contests against the Raiders, including the playoffs.

Bold prediction: Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers will record 80-plus receiving yards. Meyers will face Bengals corner Cam Taylor-Britt, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap -- fourth most among all outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps. -- Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Bengals

Fantasy X factor: Bengals running backChase Brown. Cincinnati's backfield started as a committee with Zack Moss and Brown, but Brown's workload has ramped up lately. He has logged 14 or more touches in four of the past five games and scored 14-plus fantasy points in three of those. This week, he has a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that is giving up the seventh-most rushing yards per attempt to running backs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget:The Raiders' Antonio Pierce is 12-5 ATS in his career, which is the best mark of anyone who has coached at least 10 games. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Bengals 24, Raiders 17

Moody's pick: Bengals 28, Raiders 24

Walder's pick: Bengals 34, Raiders 19

FPI prediction: CIN, 65.0% (by an average of 5.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Pierce: Raiders must 'clean up' playcalling, offensive issues ... 3 ways the Bengals' defense regressed since Super Bowl LVI ... Raiders' run game reaches tragic low vs. Chiefs

Chargers (4-3) at Browns (2-6)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (42.5 O/U)

Chargers storyline to watch: After throwing for fewer than 200 yards in each of the first four games this season, quarterback Justin Herbert heads to Cleveland on a three-game stretch of averaging 288 yards per game. Cleveland has allowed 200-plus passing yards four times. -- Kris Rhim

Browns storyline to watch:QBJameis Winston transformed the Browns' offense in his first start-- 334 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions -- but is his performance sustainable? Sunday's matchup against the Chargers, the best defense Cleveland has faced to date, will be telling. Los Angeles leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 13 points per game. -- Daniel Oyefusi

Stat to know: This is the first meeting between these teams since Week 5 of 2022. The Chargers have won five of the past six meetings, dating to 2015.

Bold prediction:Winston will throw two or more interceptions. He had two dropped interceptions against the Ravens last week. He's not going to get that lucky again. No quarterback has more than four dropped interceptions this season -- and Winston has started only one game. -- Walder

Injuries: Chargers | Browns

Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiverCedric Tillman. He has two straight games of nine or more targets and at least 18.0 fantasy points. Tillman has stepped up big with Amari Cooper gone, and now he's catching passes from Winston, which gives him an added edge. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Chargers are 4-1 ATS as favorites this season, including 3-0 against teams with losing records. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Chargers 24, Browns 22

Moody's pick: Chargers 17, Browns 16

Walder's pick: Chargers 23, Browns 16

FPI prediction: CLE, 54.3% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Chargers rookie performance in Week 8 offers vindication ... QB Winston breathing new life into Browns' offense ... Winston to remain Browns' QB1 after Ravens upset

Patriots (2-6) at Titans (1-6)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: TEN -3.5 (37.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to watch: Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has been in concussion protocol since Sunday, but as a limited participant in practice throughout the week, so coach Jerod Mayo is leaving open the possibility that he plays. "I do have confidence that if the league says he's ready to play, he will be able to go out there and operate," Mayo said. If Maye isn't cleared to play, veteran Jacoby Brissett will get the start and rookie Joe Milton III will be the backup. -- Mike Reiss

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are yet to win a game at home this season. The Patriots haven't won on the road since the season opener against the Bengals. At 1-6, the Titans should take no game for granted. But this week should be an ideal opportunity for coach Brian Callahan to get his first win at Nissan Stadium. "I'm excited to get back in front of our fans and give them something to be excited about again." -- Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Titans lost back-to-back games by at least 20 points for the first time since Weeks 13-14 in 2014. They haven't lost three straight by 20 points since October 2009.

Bold prediction: Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez will record an interception. Gonzalez has the highest target rate among outside corners with a better-than-average yards per coverage snap and 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. In other words, the ball is coming his way but he's not allowing lots of production. -- Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Titans

Fantasy X factor:Patriots running backRhamondre Stevenson. He should be the centerpiece of the Patriots' offense this week, regardless of whetherMaye clears concussion protocol or if New England turns toBrissett. Stevenson has hit 20-plus touches in three games this season, putting up 17 or more fantasy points each time. Facing a Titans defense ranked 23rd in run stop win rate, Stevenson should see similar volume.See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. The Titans are 1-4 ATS as favorites since the start of last season. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Patriots 24, Titans 17

Moody's pick: Patriots 20, Titans 18

Walder's pick: Titans 19, Patriots 16

FPI prediction: TEN, 60.3% (by an average of 4.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Pats QB Maye in concussion protocol ... Being a first-time NFL head coach can be tough; just ask these 4

Commanders (6-2) at Giants (2-6)

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: WSH -4 (44.5 O/U)

Commanders storyline to watch: Washington ranks second in the NFL in yards per run (5.2) and third in rush yards per game (165.8). Some of the latter total stems from quarterback Jayden Daniels, who averages 53 rushing yards per game. But the Commanders' running backs still average a combined 5.2 per carry. Meanwhile, the Giants' run defense ranks last in yards allowed per carry (5.4) and 27th in rush yards per game (141.8). Washington can hit big pass plays with Daniels, but facing strong edge pass rushers, the Commanders will look to control the game on the ground. -- John Keim

Giants storyline to watch: Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers is looking to bounce back from a game in which he had two key drops in Pittsburgh. He's especially motivated against a Washington team that couldn't stop him in the first meeting. Nabers had 10 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in that matchup. He's itching for another big game after two pedestrian performances coming off a concussion. -- Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: The Giants are 0-4 at home this season, averaging 7.8 points per game (fewest in the NFL). They haven't started 0-5 at home since 1974.

Bold prediction: The Commanders will break off a 20-plus-yard screen play at some point in the game. Washington runs screens 6% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league, and the Giants' defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per screen. -- Walder

Injuries: Commanders | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Commanders wide receiverTerry McLaurin. He has had 16 or more fantasy points in five of his past six games. He has historically performed well against the Giants, averaging 9.1 targets and 16.5 fantasy points across 10 career games. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: Unders are 4-0 in Giants home games this season. Overs are 4-0 in Commanders road games this season. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Commanders 30, Giants 23

Moody's pick: Commanders 27, Giants 21

Walder's pick: Commanders 30, Giants 14

FPI prediction: WSH, 65.5% (by an average of 5.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside Commanders' wild Hail Mary to stun Bears ... QB Jones 'frustrated' amid his, Giants' struggles

Saints (2-6) at Panthers (1-7)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NO -7 (43.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: Derek Carr is expected to start after missing the past three games because of an oblique injury, and Jake Haener will return to backing him up after the Saints went with rookie Spencer Rattler in Carr's absence. The struggling Saints, who have lost six straight, have dropped to 21st in offensive yards per game (319.5) and last in defensive yard allowed (392.8) after a 2-0 start that began with a thrashing of the Panthers in Week 1. They'll have most of the offense back from that game with the exception of center Erik McCoy(groin) and receiver Rashid Shaheed(knee).-- Katherine Terrell

Panthers storyline to watch: Bryce Young will start again at quarterback, but he didn't fare well in the Panthers' first game against the Saints. He was sacked four times and passed for only 161 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. But Carolina's biggest problem is defense, particularly with Carr returning. Carr had three passing TDs in Week 1, and the Saints rushed for 180 yards against a healthy Carolina defense. The Panthers have lost several key defenders since and are giving up an NFL-worst 154.6 rushing yards per game. -- David Newton

Stat to know:Young is 2-17 as a starter and will make his 20th start Sunday. With a loss, Young would joinSteve DeBerg and Chris Weinke as the only quarterbacks since 1950 to lose 18 of their first 20 career starts.

Bold prediction: Saints running back Alvin Kamara will rush for 100 or more yards. Carolina can't stop the run -- it ranks 32nd in run stop win rate (25.9%) and 28th in EPA allowed per designed carry (minus-2.91). Of course, the Panthers can't stop the pass either, but the Saints can get Kamara more involved after taking an early lead. -- Walder

Injuries: Saints | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Saints wide receiverChris Olave. He scored 18.7 fantasy points against the Chargers in Week 8 -- a big relief for fantasy managers. Olave had just 2.5 points combined in Weeks 5 and 6 and then missed Week 7 against the Broncos. He's positioned to maintain the positive momentum. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers are 1-7 against the spread this season, which is the worst ATS record in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Saints 21, Panthers 14

Moody's pick: Saints 30, Panthers 17

Walder's pick: Saints 27, Panthers 12

FPI prediction: NO, 71.5% (by an average of 8.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can Saints snap six-game freefall against Panthers? ...