2026 NFL training camp: Predicting four QB1 battles

Few things capture the imagination of NFL fans and observers during training camp as much as an intense quarterback competition. And as the 2026 camps kick off, I've identified four of them to spotlight in our annual piece predicting who will ultimately end up being the QB1.

I called various sources around the league to get a sense of how most people think these competitions will play out. Obviously, it's an imperfect science, and there's still more than a month to go before the regular season starts. But after spring OTAs, minicamps and the month or so that the teams have had to reflect ahead of camp, we have at least some idea of what to expect.

The four spots we're looking at this year:

• Atlanta, where a former Falcons first-round pick is trying to hold off a former Dolphins first-round pick


• Cleveland, where the Browns always seem to have a quarterback competition of some sort


• Las Vegas, where the Raiders brought in a veteran so the first pick in this year's draft doesn't feel pressured to play right away


• Minnesota, where last season was such a catastrophe that the Vikings had to bring in someone else, even if he was a castoff

We'll hit these alphabetically, starting with the Falcons' battle between two lefties.

Jump to a QB1 battle:

Falcons | Browns | Raiders | Vikings

Atlanta Falcons

Candidates: Michael Penix Jr., Tua Tagovailoa

Penix was the eighth pick in 2024, when Terry Fontenot was the Falcons' general manager and Raheem Morris was their coach. Both of those guys are gone now, with Ian Cunningham taking over as the GM, Kevin Stefanski becoming the coach and all-time Falcons great Matt Ryan coming in with the title of president of football to oversee the whole thing. We point out these significant personnel changes to underline the fact that the people running the Falcons are no longer the people who felt Penix was worthy of the No. 8 pick in the draft. That doesn't mean they don't like Penix -- just that they might not feel compelled to make a decision that justifies a previous decision.

Penix took over for a struggling Kirk Cousinsin his 2024 rookie seasonand started the final three games. Then Penix opened 2025 as the starter in Atlanta but played only nine games before tearing an ACL in November, missing the rest of the campaign. This is the third time Penix has suffered a torn ACL. He has made 12 career starts in the NFL (the Falcons have won four of them), and he has completed 59.6% of his passes for 2,757 yards and 12 touchdowns with six interceptions. He also has two rushing touchdowns.

Tagovailoa, meanwhile, was the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft by the Dolphins. Over his career, he has a 44-32 record, a completion percentage of 68.0%, 120 passing touchdowns and 59 interceptions. He led the league in passing yardage in 2023 and in completion percentage in 2024, but he struggled with health and consistency throughout his Miami tenure and was benched with three games left in the 2025 season.Tagovailoa was subsequently released despite $54 million in guaranteed money remaining on his contract. And the Falcons were able to sign him for the veterans minimum because the Dolphins were on the hook for that $54 million.

While Tagovailoa has struggled with injuries throughout his career, he's healthy right now -- and Penix is not. As Penix has worked his way back from the knee injury, Tagovailoa has had a chance to collect reps and impress the new coaching staff in spring work. It remains to be seen how much Penix will be able to do in training camp, but this competition could be heavily influenced by his health situation.

"Penix being hurt isn't just a bad break for him," one NFC personnel executive said. "He was hurt all the time in college, and that was one of the big concerns."

A couple of the people I spoke to expect the Falcons to want to play Penix at some point this season, to see whether they have something there before they have to decide on his fifth-year contract option in May. But the Falcons also have a loaded and expensive roster, along with a mandate from ownership to win right away. That's the key here. If Penix can get healthy and outperform Tagovailoa in camp, Penix could open the season as the starter and theoretically run with the job. But if Tagovailoa opens as the Week 1 starter, that same opportunity is his to take.

"If Tua is running the offense and they're winning games, they're not going to throw Penix in there just to get a look at him," said a scout with an AFC team.

Week 1 starter prediction: Tagovailoa. Given the extensive injury history Penix carried with him into the league from college, it makes sense for the Falcons to be cautious with his recovery. If he isn't cleared for 11-on-11 work at the start of camp, he is going to be playing catch-up with Tagovailoa, who's a more accurate thrower than Penix. Tagovailoa should be able to run the Stefanski offense well enough in practice to convince the coaches he gives them the best chance to win at the start of the season.

If that's the way it plays out, Penix could certainly still get into the mix and start some games at some point this season. But Tagovailoa and/or the team would have to struggle in order for Atlanta to make a change.

Cleveland Browns

Candidates: Shedeur Sanders, Deshaun Watson

Sanders was a much-discussed fifth-round pick by the Browns in 2025. Projected by many to go in the first or second round, his draft tumble became fodder for all manner of sports talk debate, which continued into the season while he sat behind veteran Joe Flacco and third-round pick Dillon Gabriel. But after Flacco got traded and Gabriel (who's still on the roster, along with sixth-round rookie Taylen Green) struggled, Sanders was named the starter for the final seven games. The Browns went 3-4 in those contests (and only 2-8 in their other 10 games), while Sanders completed 120 of 212 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns with 10 interceptions.

Watson ... well, where do we begin? After leading the league in passing yards in 2020 for the Texans, he sat out the 2021 season because he didn't want to play for Houston anymore. He ultimately got traded in the spring of 2022 to the Browns for a trove of high draft picks and signed a new fully guaranteed, five-year, $230 million contract. But he was suspended for the first 11 games of the 2022 season due to personal conduct violations after more than two dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct during massage therapy sessions.

Watson played the final six games of that season as Cleveland's starting quarterback. He then missed 11 games due to injury in 2023 and 10 more in 2024. The injury that ended his 2024 campaign was aright Achilles tendon tear, and he tore that tendon again during rehab that offseason, missing the entirety of 2025 as a result. So, here we are, at long last, in the fifth and final year of that albatross contract. Watson is guaranteed $46 million this season -- and he's healthy.

The Browns fired Stefanski as their coach in January and replaced him with Todd Monken, who does not have the history that Stefanski had with Watson. Monken is open-minded to the idea of Watson as the starter if he outperforms the rest of the group in camp. But with two first-round picks in next year's quarterback-rich draft, the Browns likely want to at least give Sanders a look this season so they know whether he has the potential to be their long-term solution. One anonymous source even said that Browns head coach candidates were asked during the interview process whether they were comfortable with Sanders as the starting QB in 2026.

"They have to play Shedeur at some point," an AFC front office executive said. "They know Watson isn't going to be there [beyond this season]."

That was a common sentiment among the people surveyed. After everything the Browns have been through with Watson -- who has played a grand total of 19 games over the past five seasons -- it's nearly impossible to imagine a scenario in which he'd play for them in 2027 or any subsequent season. If that's the case, the only reason to start him this season is if Monken truly believes he gives them the best chance to win games. And even if that happens, it's fair to expect a change at some point if they don't win games.

"My question is whether they keep Deshaun on the team if they go with [Sanders]," the AFC scout said.

They almost certainly would. The Browns have to pay Watson that $46 million this season no matter what. Releasing him would result in a completely untenable $127 million in dead money cap charges. They could split that up, taking about $41 million in dead money this year and the remaining roughly $86 million in 2027; but those are the same cap charges they'll have for him anyway if he's on the team all season and his contract voids, as it's scheduled to in March. Even if he doesn't play, they're better off keeping Watson and designating him as a post-June 1 cut next spring, to spread that $86 million out over two years.

Week 1 starter prediction: Watson. The process-driven Browns aren't going to decide this based on public perception -- that is, what their fans would think. And Monken, who has waited a long time to be a head coach, is likely to push for the guy who gives Cleveland the best chance to win. A healthy Watson, performing the way he did early in spring practices, could very well end training camp looking like that guy.

But I'm very much of the belief that Sanders will play a representative number of games this season, even if he doesn't get to play the first one. The Browns need to know what they have before next year's draft.

Las Vegas Raiders

Candidates:Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza, Aidan O'Connell

Cousins is a 15-year veteran who played for the Falcons the previous two seasons and was released by them this spring, before signing a one-year, $11.3 million deal with the Raiders. I could give you his stats, but if you're reading content like this, you know what you need to know about Cousins. He was perturbed two years ago when the Falcons drafted Penix in the first round, just a few weeks after Cousins signed a four-year contract with them. But Cousins also was a good soldier for the organization and a helpful mentor for Penix in spite of that. And he signed with the Raiders knowing they were going to use the draft's first pick on Mendoza, so there's no reason to believe Cousins won't be the same good soldier and helpful mentor this time around.

Mendoza was the No. 1 pick after leading Indiana to an undefeated season and a national title, winning the Heisman Trophy in the process. He is the future of the franchise and will play at some point, even if he doesn't play right away. Everyone involved in this situation knows this. And then there's O'Connell, a fourth-round pick by the Raiders in 2023 who started 17 games for them over the first two years of his career. The only reason I list O'Connell here is because I believe he could end up starting Week 1 -- rather than Mendoza -- if Cousins were to get injured in camp.

"[The Raiders] were telling everyone at the combine that they didn't want to play Mendoza right away," one player agent said. "It wasn't a surprise when they went out and got Cousins."

Talking to people around this situation throughout the spring and summer, I came away believing that nothing had changed. The Raiders do not want to play Mendoza right away in Week 1. They want to make sure he takes whatever time he needs to adjust to the pro game and that they, as a team and a roster, are in the best possible position to help Mendoza succeed once he does take over. The Raiders have a new coach in Klint Kubiak and a roster that has holes in a lot of places, including wide receiver.

Is it out of the question that they would put their prized rookie out there in Week 1? Of course not. But I am here to tell you that right now, it is not their plan.

"I honestly believe that if something were to happen to Cousins, they'd start Aidan O'Connell before Mendoza right now," an AFC assistant coach said. "They absolutely do not want to rush [Mendoza]."

A lot of teams say these things about their first-round picks. The Giants were saying it about Jaxson Dart this time last year. It almost never works out. The Chiefs pulled it off in 2017, starting Alex Smith all season while rookie Patrick Mahomes sat on the bench until a meaningless final-week game. But that team started 5-0 and stayed in first place all season long.

Most teams in the Raiders' position (like the 2025 Giants, for example) don't have that kind of success and end up feeling forced to make a change. That could happen to the Raiders this season, but the question is how long they'll go before they decide it's time to throw Mendoza in there.

Week 1 starter prediction: Cousins. I don't think this is a true "quarterback competition." There could well be a universe in which Mendoza looks so good in camp that the Raiders decide he's ready Week 1 and that's their best course of action. But as of now, the Raiders have a plan for Mendoza, and it does not include starting the first game of his rookie season.

Minnesota Vikings

Candidates: J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray

McCarthy was the 10th pick in the 2024 draft after the Vikings traded up to take him, believing he had the stuff to be their long-term answer at quarterback. He suffered a season-ending knee injury early in camp that year, and the Vikings won 14 games with Sam Darnold at quarterback. But they then let Darnold leave in free agency last offseason and anointed McCarthy the starter for 2025.

It did not go well. McCarthy missed seven games due to various injuries. And in the 10 games he started, he completed 140 of 243 passes for 1,632 yards and 11 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. He also fumbled six times and took 27 sacks. All-world Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had the worst season of his career, catching 84 passes for 1,048 yards and just two touchdowns. So, the Vikings, who didn't have a ton of cap space but knew they couldn't just run it back with McCarthy, went looking for a veteran option this past spring.

Murray, the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft by the Cardinals, was released by Arizona with $37 million in guaranteed money left on his contract, so the Vikings were able to sign him to a veterans minimum contract that includes a provision prohibiting them from using the franchise or transition tag on him next year. Murray effectively gets a one-year tryout to see how he and the Vikings feel about each other -- but first, he has to beat out McCarthy for the starting job.

"You could make the case that the best thing for the Vikings would be if J.J. beat out Kyler in training camp," one NFC front office executive said.

That individual is right, if we're talking about the long term. If the impact of the Murray signing is a light going on for McCarthy and he performs the way Minnesota thought he would when it picked him at No. 10, then the Vikings might have the long-term solution to their QB problem. Because even if Murray wins the job and plays well, the no-franchise provision in his contract would leave the Vikings starting from scratch next spring.

But the Vikings, who had to win their final five games last season just to finish 9-8, are a team with sights set on playoff contention. So, they will play the quarterback who gives them the best chance to have success. Popular opinion around the league seems to be that it will turn out to be Murray.

"Kyler isn't perfect, but I don't know how you get past what [McCarthy] did last year," another NFC exec said. "The players in that locker room know Kyler has done some things in the NFL, and they'll respect that."

Still, indications do seem to be that this is a real competition as camp opens, even if Murray looks like the favorite. He impressed Vikings coaches and players in the spring with his arm talent, but the Vikings will be evaluating him this summer on leadership and decision-making as he continues to learn Kevin O'Connell's offense.

They'll of course be evaluating McCarthy on the same things, but they specifically want to see him improve the layering of his throws -- his ability to make different types of passes, changing speeds and trajectories depending on the situation. That was a specific area of weakness they identified with him last season, and my understanding is that he showed some improvement there in the spring.

Week 1 starter prediction: Murray. I still believe this could go either way. If Murray were a perfect solution, the Cardinals wouldn't be paying him $36 million to play for someone else. It's absolutely possible McCarthy proves to be the better option in camp. But given the way last season went, it does feel as if McCarthy is starting from behind and would really have to be lights out in order to win the job.

If McCarthy does win it, people around the league would be interested to see whether the Vikings even keep Murray, since they also brought back veteran Carson Wentz, who proved to be a capable fill-in last season before suffering his own season-ending injury.

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