Malibu earthquake: USGS chart shows chances of at least 1 aftershock within next week

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Friday, September 13, 2024
USGS chart shows chances of at least 1 aftershock within next week
Within the next week, the probability of an aftershock with a magnitude of 3 or above is 79%, which is quite high.

MALIBU, Calif. (KABC) -- Unlike other natural disasters, predicting when an earthquake will strike is impossible.

However, the U.S. Geological Survey is able to forecast the likelihood of aftershocks once an earthquake occurs.

A look at the earthquake aftershock forecast

The aftershock forecast for Thursday's 4.7 magnitude earthquake in the Malibu area shows you the chances of at least one aftershock within the next week.

Within the next week, the probability of an aftershock with a magnitude of 3 or above is 79%, which is quite high. But the probability goes down as the magnitude goes up.

It's 19% for a magnitude 4 or higher, 2% for a magnitude 5 and above, and less than 1% for a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake.

The Malibu area quake struck around 7:28 a.m. at a depth of nearly six miles. It originally registered as a 5.1, but was quickly downgraded. Several aftershocks rumbled the area over the following hour, including a 3.4 around 8:40 a.m.

This earthquake aftershock forecast is readily available on the USGS website after every earthquake.