They guessed in 2009 that Bin Laden was hiding in the Pakistani town of Parachinar, which is about 300 miles from Abbottabad where he was found. The study said there was an 88.9 percent chance that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.
But unlike most guesses, they didn't think he was in rugged mountains. They believed he was inside a walled compound in a Pakistani city, designed to shelter him and his bodyguards with little chance of detection.
