Climate change amplified dryness, but LA fires still extreme without it: UCLA analysis
In a new quick-turn analysis, UCLA climate scientists found that climate change could be responsible for roughly a quarter of the extreme vegetation dryness present when the Palisades and Eaton fires began. But they say the fires would still have been extreme even without that moisture deficit.
"We believe that the fires would still have been extreme without the climate change components noted above, but would have been somewhat smaller and less intense," the team noted.
The climate scientists at UCLA's Climate & Wildlife Research Initiative considered what contributed to the fire "to quantify how unusual these factors are, in the context of the natural weather and climate variability."
The researchers examined the intense summer heat, drought and extreme precipitation that impacted the region in recent years. They concluded that the unusually warm temperatures during the summer and fall of 2024 are the most likely way climate change could have helped intensify the wildfires by lowering fuel moisture in the region.
However, the analysis found that this stretch of unusually warm weather was likely not the primary driver of the extreme vegetation dryness that was in place at the time of the wildfires.
Researchers point to the lack of early wet season precipitation as the main contributor of the extremely dry fuels, estimating that about 75% of the dryness was due to lack of rain and roughly 25% attributed to the stretch of anomalous warmth. They say the current rain deficit is more likely due to California's highly variable natural climate rather than human-amplified climate change.
"As I've often said, no one claims that climate change directly causes natural disasters. Instead, we highlight that human-caused climate change amplifies these events. As this issue becomes more pronounced, it's essential that we focus on mitigation, adaptation, and planning for the warming that is already inevitable," explained Ginger Zee, ABC News chief meteorologist and chief climate correspondent.
Based on their findings, the research team recommends aggressively suppressing fire ignitions when extreme fire weather is forecast, making homes more fire resistant, and building new units in low wildfire risk zones.
The analysis has not been peer-reviewed and additional findings are likely to emerge as new studies are completed.