This is the biggest speech of Vance's life
J.D. Vance is speaking in primetime at the RNC, live on all three big networks as well as cable news.
The stakes are high, as this is the first impression many Americans will have of him.
According to a recent YouGov poll, 43 percent of Americans don't have an opinion of Vance -- probably because many of them are hearing about him for the very first time.
This speech will be step one in (he hopes) building a positive reputation for himself.
The conventional wisdom is that presidential candidates should pick running mates who will give them a boost in a key swing state. But Trump didn't do that: Vance is from Ohio, a state that used to be pivotal in presidential elections but has now become pretty reliably Republican. (Trump won it by 8 points in 2020 even as Biden was winning nationwide by a healthy margin.)
Was that a missed opportunity for Trump? Probably not: It turns out that vice-presidential candidates barely matter. Historically, they have been worth about 1 additional percentage point in their home state -- if that -- and don't make a difference in other states. So while Vance might be worth a few extra votes in Ohio, his selection is unlikely to move the needle even in neighboring states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan and probably won't affect the election outcome.
-538's Nathaniel Rakich